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Description
Finding
#750/#751 bind the declared successful-window cardinality (5) into CoverageCalibrationDesign::tepp_nominal_95_v1() and make analysis_engine consume that owner value. The actual cutoff geometry that defines those five windows is still partly caller-local in analysis_engine::coverage_calibration_execution: FIRST_TRAINING_EVENT_INDEX: usize = 3 selects the first event admitted to the cutoff sequence, recovery_cutoffs(...) then uses each selected event's latest document available_time as its cutoff, and adjacent cutoffs form expanding rolling-origin windows.
The current design fingerprint v8 binds only the count. A future executor can move the first admitted event or change the cutoff-anchor rule while preserving five windows and therefore retain the same prospective validation-design fingerprint while evaluating a different temporal training/evaluation geometry. Exact source_head would show that code changed, but the prospective scientific design would no longer identify the window geometry declared before outcomes were observed.
Required repair
- keep actual snapshot/partition construction in
analysis_engineand canonical admission incorpus_split; - give
CoverageCalibrationDesign::tepp_nominal_95_v1()a stable rolling-origin geometry identity for the current rule: start at event index3, derive one cutoff per selected event from that event's latest document availability time, and use adjacent cutoffs with expanding-history admission; - expose the first training event index from the validation owner and remove the analysis-local
FIRST_TRAINING_EVENT_INDEXauthority; - bind the geometry identity and first event index into a new coverage-design fingerprint domain before the 10,000-DGP run;
- make execution consume the owner-issued first event index while preserving the existing five-window arithmetic, scenario, seed schedule, training-fit ALR estimand, interval rule, percentile/MCSE methods, denominator semantics, and undefined numerical-failure acceptability;
- pin the new fingerprint and add owner/executor regression evidence;
- do not claim this repair executes or passes scientific(selection): add leakage-safe rolling-origin K validation #680 acceptance.
RED boundary
The current owner and executor both encode the same effective geometry, so changing a literal solely to fabricate a failing numerical test would be synthetic. Treat this as an ownership/prospective-design drift finding: add regression contracts that would fail on future owner/executor divergence, and do not claim a hosted failing RED unless an actual exact-head run demonstrates one.
Activity
scientific(coverage): bind rolling-origin cutoff geometry (#753)
seonghobae commentedon Sep 24, 2026
Implemented ordinary-forward on #639 at exact head
5eaa422e318903407c1ed8a2ee0a7e82c07d2b0f.tepp.coverage.rolling_origin_geometry.latest_event_availability_adjacent_expanding.v1and first training event index3;f6fd3855ec7ef413309cbb0b48b3572853d4fa87d4c46e47f265e06074aeffa0;analysis_engineremoved its local first-event literal and consumesvalidation_design.first_training_event_index()while retaining actual cutoff/snapshot/partition construction;No synthetic RED is claimed because old executor and new owner both use index
3; this is prospective-design/ownership drift repair. The 10,000-DGP study and #680 acceptance remain unexecuted. Keep #753 open until protected-main inheritance/exact-head gates and review are satisfied.