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dav-sonn merged 2 commits into from
May 5, 2026
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Omit redundant social care provision flags #463

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e50b681
Omit redundant social care provision flags
justin-ven May 5, 2026
7799474
Use sinh for care hours and adjust draws
dav-sonn May 5, 2026
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5 changes: 0 additions & 5 deletions src/main/java/simpaths/data/startingpop/DataParser.java
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Expand Up @@ -224,11 +224,6 @@ private static void parse(String inputFileLocation, String inputFileName, Connec
+ "ALTER TABLE " + personTable + " DROP COLUMN yFinDstrssFlag;"
+ "ALTER TABLE " + personTable + " ALTER COLUMN financial_distress_add RENAME TO yFinDstrssFlag;"

//Social care
+ "ALTER TABLE " + personTable + " ADD careProvidedFlag VARCHAR_IGNORECASE;"
+ "UPDATE " + personTable + " SET careProvidedFlag = 'None' WHERE careHrsProvidedWeek <= 0 OR careHrsProvidedWeek IS NULL;"
+ "UPDATE " + personTable + " SET careProvidedFlag = 'OnlyOther' WHERE careHrsProvidedWeek > 0;"

//SYSTEM : Year
+ "ALTER TABLE " + personTable + " ALTER COLUMN statInterviewYear RENAME TO system_year;"

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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion src/main/java/simpaths/model/BenefitUnit.java
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Expand Up @@ -4684,7 +4684,7 @@ private void updateSocialCareProvision() {

careProvidedFlag = 0;
for (Person person : getMembers()) {
if (!SocialCareProvision.None.equals(person.getSocialCareProvision()))
if (!Indicator.False.equals(person.getSocialCareProvision()))
careProvidedFlag = 1;
}
}
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83 changes: 23 additions & 60 deletions src/main/java/simpaths/model/Person.java
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Expand Up @@ -98,8 +98,8 @@ public class Person implements EventListener, IDoubleSource, IIntSource, Weight,
@NullInitialised @Transient private Boolean careFormalFlag;
@NullInitialised @Transient private Boolean careFromInformalFlag;
@Column(name="careHrsProvidedWeek") private Double careHrsProvidedWeek;
@Enumerated(EnumType.STRING) @Column(name="careProvidedFlag") private SocialCareProvision careProvidedFlag;
@Lag(field="careProvidedFlag") @Transient private SocialCareProvision careProvidedFlagL1;
@Transient private Indicator careProvidedFlag;
@Lag(field="careProvidedFlag") @Transient private Indicator careProvidedFlagL1;
@Lag(field="careNeedFlag") @Transient private Indicator careNeedFlagL1;
@Lag(field="careHrsFormalWeek") @Transient private Double careHrsFormalWeekL1;
@Lag(field="careHrsProvidedWeek") @Transient private Double careHrsProvidedWeekL1;
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -446,7 +446,7 @@ else if (demAge > Parameters.MAX_AGE_TO_STAY_IN_CONTINUOUS_EDUCATION)

careHrsProvidedWeek = Objects.requireNonNullElse(originalPerson.careHrsProvidedWeek, 0.0);
careProvidedFlag = Objects.requireNonNullElseGet(originalPerson.careProvidedFlag, () ->
(careHrsProvidedWeek > 0.01) ? SocialCareProvision.OnlyOther : SocialCareProvision.None);
(careHrsProvidedWeek > 0.01) ? Indicator.True : Indicator.False);

careNeedFlagL1 = Objects.requireNonNullElse(originalPerson.careNeedFlagL1, careNeedFlag);
careHrsFormalWeekL1 = Objects.requireNonNullElse(originalPerson.careHrsFormalWeekL1, careHrsFormalWeek);
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -559,7 +559,7 @@ public Person(Long id, long statSeed) {

// initialise random draws
this.statSeed = statSeed;
statInnovations = new Innovations(37, 1, 1, statSeed);
statInnovations = new Innovations(38, 1, 1, statSeed);

//Draw desired age and wage differential for parametric partnership formation for people above age to get married:
double[] sampleDifferentials = setMarriageTargets();
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -601,12 +601,12 @@ private void setAllSocialCareVariablesToFalse() {
careReceivedFlag = SocialCareReceipt.None;
careFormalFlag = false;
careFromInformalFlag = false;
careProvidedFlag = SocialCareProvision.None;
careProvidedFlag = Indicator.False;
careNeedFlagL1 = Indicator.False;
careHrsFormalWeekL1 = -9.0;
careHrsInformalWeekL1 = -9.0;
careHrsProvidedWeekL1 = -9.0;
careProvidedFlagL1 = SocialCareProvision.None;
careProvidedFlagL1 = Indicator.False;
}

public void setAdditionalFieldsInInitialPopulation() {
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -639,6 +639,11 @@ public void setAdditionalFieldsInInitialPopulation() {

if (!Parameters.checkFinite(careHrsInformalWeek))
careHrsInformalWeek = 0.0;
if (careHrsProvidedWeek < 0.01) {
careProvidedFlag = Indicator.False;
} else {
careProvidedFlag = Indicator.True;
}
if (demAge <Parameters.AGE_TO_BECOME_RESPONSIBLE) {
Person mother = benefitUnit.getFemale();
if (mother!=null)
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1490,7 +1495,7 @@ protected void evaluateSocialCareReceipt() {
double score = Parameters.getRegInformalCareHoursS2d().getScore(this,Person.DoublesVariables.class);
double rmse = Parameters.getRMSEForRegression("S2d");
double gauss = Parameters.getStandardNormalDistribution().inverseCumulativeProbability(statInnovations.getDoubleDraw(12));
double informalHours = Math.min(Parameters.MAX_HOURS_WEEKLY_INFORMAL_CARE, Math.exp(score + rmse * gauss));
double informalHours = Math.min(Parameters.MAX_HOURS_WEEKLY_INFORMAL_CARE, Math.sinh(score + rmse * gauss));
careFromInformalFlag = true;
careHrsInformalWeek = informalHours;

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1563,7 +1568,7 @@ protected void evaluateSocialCareReceipt() {
double score = Parameters.getRegFormalCareHoursS2e().getScore(this,Person.DoublesVariables.class);
double rmse = Parameters.getRMSEForRegression("S2e");
double gauss = Parameters.getStandardNormalDistribution().inverseCumulativeProbability(statInnovations.getDoubleDraw(13));
careHrsFormalWeek = Math.min(Parameters.MAX_HOURS_WEEKLY_FORMAL_CARE, Math.exp(score + rmse * gauss));
careHrsFormalWeek = Math.min(Parameters.MAX_HOURS_WEEKLY_FORMAL_CARE, Math.sinh(score + rmse * gauss));
careFormalX = careHrsFormalWeek * Parameters.getTimeSeriesValue(model.getYear(), TimeSeriesVariable.CarerWageRate);

// Retired process (kept for future reuse): S2k formal care hours.
Expand All @@ -1583,7 +1588,7 @@ protected void evaluateSocialCareProvision() {

public void evaluateSocialCareProvision(double probitAdjustment) {

careProvidedFlag = SocialCareProvision.None;
careProvidedFlag = Indicator.False;
careHrsProvidedWeek = 0.0;
if (demAge >= Parameters.MIN_AGE_TO_PROVIDE_CARE) {

Expand All @@ -1606,7 +1611,7 @@ public void evaluateSocialCareProvision(double probitAdjustment) {
double score = Parameters.getRegNoCarePartnerProvCareToOtherS3b().getScore(this, Person.DoublesVariables.class);
probProvideAny = Parameters.getRegNoCarePartnerProvCareToOtherS3b().getProbability(score + probitAdjustment);
}
boolean provideCare = (statInnovations.getDoubleDraw(13) < probProvideAny);
boolean provideCare = (statInnovations.getDoubleDraw(37) < probProvideAny);
if (!Parameters.flagSuppressSocialCareCosts && provideCare) {

double score;
Expand All @@ -1623,20 +1628,8 @@ public void evaluateSocialCareProvision(double probitAdjustment) {
rmse = Parameters.getRMSEForRegression("S3d");
}
double gauss = Parameters.getStandardNormalDistribution().inverseCumulativeProbability(statInnovations.getDoubleDraw(14));
careHrsProvidedWeek = Math.min(Parameters.MAX_HOURS_WEEKLY_INFORMAL_CARE, Math.exp(score + rmse * gauss));
if (careToPartner) {

if (careHrsProvidedWeek > careHoursToPartner) {

careProvidedFlag = SocialCareProvision.PartnerAndOther;
} else {

careProvidedFlag = SocialCareProvision.OnlyPartner;
}
} else {

careProvidedFlag = SocialCareProvision.OnlyOther;
}
careHrsProvidedWeek = Math.min(Parameters.MAX_HOURS_WEEKLY_INFORMAL_CARE, Math.sinh(score + rmse * gauss));
careProvidedFlag = Indicator.True;
}
}
}
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -3250,25 +3243,7 @@ public double getDoubleValue(Enum<?> variableID) {
return (partner != null && Indicator.True.equals(partner.getNeedSocialCare())) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case ProvideCare_L1 -> {
return (careProvidedFlagL1 != null && !SocialCareProvision.None.equals(careProvidedFlagL1)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case CareToPartnerOnly -> {
return (SocialCareProvision.OnlyPartner.equals(careProvidedFlag)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case CareToPartnerAndOther -> {
return (SocialCareProvision.PartnerAndOther.equals(careProvidedFlag)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case CareToOtherOnly -> {
return (SocialCareProvision.OnlyOther.equals(careProvidedFlag)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case CareToPartnerOnly_L1 -> {
return (SocialCareProvision.OnlyPartner.equals(careProvidedFlagL1)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case CareToPartnerAndOther_L1 -> {
return (SocialCareProvision.PartnerAndOther.equals(careProvidedFlagL1)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case CareToOtherOnly_L1 -> {
return (SocialCareProvision.OnlyOther.equals(careProvidedFlagL1)) ? 1. : 0.;
return (Indicator.True.equals(careProvidedFlagL1)) ? 1. : 0.;
}
case ReceiveCare_L1 -> {
return (getTotalHoursSocialCare_L1() > 0.01) ? 1. : 0.;
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -5146,15 +5121,6 @@ public Long getPartnerID() {
} else return null;
}

private void nullPartnerVariables() {

demPartnerNYear = 0;
if (SocialCareProvision.OnlyPartner.equals(careProvidedFlag))
careProvidedFlag = SocialCareProvision.None;
else if (SocialCareProvision.PartnerAndOther.equals(careProvidedFlag))
careProvidedFlag = SocialCareProvision.OnlyOther;
}

public Labour getLabourSupplyWeekly() {
if (labHrsWorkEnumWeek ==null)
throw new RuntimeException("request for labourSupplyWeekly before it has been initialised");
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -5324,7 +5290,7 @@ public void setCareHoursFromOtherWeekly_lag1(double val) {
public void setCareHoursFromFormalWeekly_lag1(double val) {
careHrsFormalWeekL1 = val;
}
public void setSocialCareProvision_lag1(SocialCareProvision careProvision) {
public void setSocialCareProvision_lag1(Indicator careProvision) {
careProvidedFlagL1 = careProvision;
}

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -5426,8 +5392,8 @@ public void setSocialCareReceipt(SocialCareReceipt who) {
careReceivedFlag = who;
}

public void setSocialCareProvision(SocialCareProvision who) {
careProvidedFlag = who;
public void setSocialCareProvision(Indicator provide) {
careProvidedFlag = provide;
}

public Indicator getDlltsd_lag1() {
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -5803,11 +5769,8 @@ public double getSocialCareProvisionState() {
return (double)getSocialCareProvision().getValue();
}

public SocialCareProvision getSocialCareProvision() {
if (careProvidedFlag ==null)
return SocialCareProvision.None;
else
return careProvidedFlag;
public Indicator getSocialCareProvision() {
return Objects.requireNonNullElse(careProvidedFlag, Indicator.False);
}

public double getRetired() {
Expand Down
19 changes: 0 additions & 19 deletions src/main/java/simpaths/model/SimPathsModel.java
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Expand Up @@ -802,7 +802,6 @@ public enum Processes {
EndYear,
UnionMatching,
LabourMarketAndIncomeUpdate,
SocialCareMarketClearing,

//Alignment Processes
FertilityAlignment,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -882,9 +881,6 @@ public void onEvent(Enum<?> type) {
}
if (commentsOn) log.info("Union matching complete.");
}
case SocialCareMarketClearing -> {
socialCareMarketClearing();
}
case FertilityAlignment -> {

if (alignFertility) {
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1911,21 +1907,6 @@ private void evalMatches(Pair<Set<Person>, Set<Person>> unmatched, boolean align
}
}

private void socialCareMarketClearing() {

// adjust provision so that aggregate provision broadly matches aggregate receipt
double careProvisionAdjustment = Parameters.getTimeSeriesValue(getYear(),TimeSeriesVariable.CareProvisionAdjustment);
SocialCareAlignment socialCareAlignment = new SocialCareAlignment(persons, careProvisionAdjustment);
double[] startVal = new double[] {careProvisionAdjustment};
double[] lowerBound = new double[] {careProvisionAdjustment - 1.5};
double[] upperBound = new double[] {careProvisionAdjustment + 1.5};
RootSearch search = new RootSearch(lowerBound, upperBound, startVal, socialCareAlignment, 1.0E-2, 0.001);
search.evaluate();
if (search.isTargetAltered()) {
Parameters.putTimeSeriesValue(getYear(), search.getTarget()[0], TimeSeriesVariable.CareProvisionAdjustment);
}
}


/*
Private helper method used to set up alignment for different occupancy types
Expand Down
25 changes: 14 additions & 11 deletions src/main/java/simpaths/model/decisions/Expectations.java
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Expand Up @@ -175,7 +175,7 @@ public Expectations(Expectations invariantExpectations) {
personProxyThisPeriod.setDhe(currentStates.getHealthCode());
personProxyThisPeriod.setDeh_c4(currentStates.getEducationCode());
personProxyThisPeriod.setDcpstLocal(currentStates.getDcpst());
personProxyThisPeriod.setSocialCareProvision(currentStates.getSocialCareProvisionCode());
personProxyThisPeriod.setSocialCareProvision(currentStates.getSocialCareProvisionState());
personProxyThisPeriod.populateSocialCareReceipt(currentStates.getSocialCareReceiptStateCode());

// add person proxy for next period expectations
Expand All @@ -194,7 +194,7 @@ public Expectations(Expectations invariantExpectations) {
personProxyNextPeriod.setDhe(currentStates.getHealthCode());
personProxyNextPeriod.setDhe_lag1(currentStates.getHealthCode());
personProxyNextPeriod.populateSocialCareReceipt_lag1(currentStates.getSocialCareReceiptStateCode());
personProxyNextPeriod.setSocialCareProvision_lag1(currentStates.getSocialCareProvisionCode());
personProxyNextPeriod.setSocialCareProvision_lag1(currentStates.getSocialCareProvisionState());
personProxyNextPeriod.setDed(currentStates.getStudentIndicator());
personProxyNextPeriod.setDeh_c4(currentStates.getEducationCode());
personProxyNextPeriod.setDeh_c4_lag1(currentStates.getEducationCode());
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -499,15 +499,18 @@ private double evalSocialCareHoursProvidedWeekly() {
double socialCareHoursProvidedWeekly = 0.0;
if (Parameters.flagSocialCare && !Parameters.flagSuppressSocialCareCosts) {

SocialCareProvision status = currentStates.getSocialCareProvisionCode();
if (!SocialCareProvision.None.equals(status)) {
// With S3e retired, no separate regression is used for hours provided in expectations.
socialCareHoursProvidedWeekly = 0.0;

// Retired process (kept for future reuse): S3e provided care hours.
// double score = Parameters.getRegCareHoursProvS3e().getScore(personProxyThisPeriod,Person.DoublesVariables.class);
// double rmse = Parameters.getRMSEForRegression("S3e");
// socialCareHoursProvidedWeekly = Math.min(80.0, Math.exp(score + rmse*rmse/2.0));
Indicator status = currentStates.getSocialCareProvisionState();
if (!Indicator.False.equals(status)) {

double score, rmse;
if (cohabitation) {
score = Parameters.getRegCareHoursProvS3d().getScore(personProxyThisPeriod,Person.DoublesVariables.class);
rmse = Parameters.getRMSEForRegression("S3d");
} else {
score = Parameters.getRegCareHoursProvS3c().getScore(personProxyThisPeriod,Person.DoublesVariables.class);
rmse = Parameters.getRMSEForRegression("S3c");
}
socialCareHoursProvidedWeekly = Math.min(80.0, Math.exp(score + rmse*rmse/2.0));
}
}
return socialCareHoursProvidedWeekly;
Expand Down
6 changes: 3 additions & 3 deletions src/main/java/simpaths/model/decisions/ExpectationsFactory.java
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Expand Up @@ -311,7 +311,7 @@ private LocalExpectations lexpectEval(Axis axis) {
if (Dcpst.Partnered.equals(personProxyNextPeriod.getDcpst()))
lexpectations.evaluateDiscrete(personProxyNextPeriod, personProxyNextPeriod.getRegressionName(axis));
else
lexpectations.evaluateLabelledIndicator(personProxyNextPeriod, personProxyNextPeriod.getRegressionName(axis), 3.0);
lexpectations.evaluateDiscrete(personProxyNextPeriod, personProxyNextPeriod.getRegressionName(axis));
} else if (Axis.WagePotential.equals(axis)) {

lexpectations.evaluateGaussian(personProxyNextPeriod, personProxyNextPeriod.getRegressionName(axis),
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -445,7 +445,7 @@ private boolean updatePersonNextPeriod(States states, Axis axis) {
val1 = states.getSocialCareReceiptCode();
} else if (Axis.SocialCareProvision.equals(axis)) {
val0 = personProxyNextPeriod.getSocialCareProvision();
val1 = states.getSocialCareProvisionCode();
val1 = states.getSocialCareProvisionState();
} else if (Axis.Cohabitation.equals(axis)) {
val0 = personProxyNextPeriod.getDcpst();
val1 = states.getDcpst();
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -478,7 +478,7 @@ private boolean updatePersonNextPeriod(States states, Axis axis) {
} else if (Axis.SocialCareReceipt.equals(axis)) {
personProxyNextPeriod.setSocialCareReceipt(states.getSocialCareReceiptCode());
} else if (Axis.SocialCareProvision.equals(axis)) {
personProxyNextPeriod.setSocialCareProvision(states.getSocialCareProvisionCode());
personProxyNextPeriod.setSocialCareProvision(states.getSocialCareProvisionState());
} else if (Axis.Cohabitation.equals(axis)) {
personProxyNextPeriod.setDcpstLocal(states.getDcpst());
} else if (Axis.Child.equals(axis)) {
Expand Down
6 changes: 3 additions & 3 deletions src/main/java/simpaths/model/decisions/GridScale.java
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Expand Up @@ -214,11 +214,11 @@ public GridScale() {
dimIndex++;
}

// social care provision
// social care provision (indicator variable)
if (Parameters.flagSocialCare) {
axes[aa][dimIndex][0] = 4; // none, partner only, partner and non-partner, non-partner only (see Enum SocialCareProvision)
axes[aa][dimIndex][0] = 2;
axes[aa][dimIndex][1] = 0;
axes[aa][dimIndex][2] = 3;
axes[aa][dimIndex][2] = 1;
axes[aa][dimIndex][3] = 0;
axes[aa][dimIndex][4] = 0;
dimIndex++;
Expand Down
20 changes: 9 additions & 11 deletions src/main/java/simpaths/model/decisions/States.java
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Expand Up @@ -332,12 +332,6 @@ boolean checkOuterStateCombination() {
loopConsider = false;
}

// check care provision
if (!getCohabitation() &&
( SocialCareProvision.OnlyPartner.equals(getSocialCareProvisionCode()) ||
SocialCareProvision.PartnerAndOther.equals(getSocialCareProvisionCode()) ))
loopConsider = false;

// return result
return loopConsider;
}
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -651,7 +645,7 @@ public boolean getPrincipalEligibleForWork() {

/**
* METHOD TO RETURN SOCIAL CARE PROVISION
* @return integer (0 no care, 1 only to partner, 2 to partner and other, 3 only to other
* @return integer (0 no care, 1 care)
*/
int getSocialCareProvision() {
if (Parameters.flagSocialCare) {
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -914,12 +908,16 @@ SocialCareReceipt getSocialCareReceiptCode() {
/**
* METHOD TO IDENTIFY SOCIAL CARE PROVISION CODE IMPLIED BY STATE COMBINATION
*/
SocialCareProvision getSocialCareProvisionCode() {
SocialCareProvision code;
Indicator getSocialCareProvisionState() {
Indicator code;
if (Parameters.flagSocialCare)
code = SocialCareProvision.getCode(getVal(Axis.SocialCareProvision));
if (getSocialCareProvision()==0) {
code = Indicator.False;
} else {
code = Indicator.True;
}
else
code = SocialCareProvision.None;
code = Indicator.False;
return code;
}

Expand Down
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